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May You Live in Interesting Times
by Cheryl Swanson

A lot has changed since Fuse 08. It reminds one of the ancient Chinese proverb (which many think is actually curse): "May you live in interesting times!"

Has your life been "interesting" in the past year? Mine has... I'm not just observing and analyzing the trends this year, but as an entrepreneur in this new market environment, I feel like I'm in the vortex... living the trends firsthand.

In the fall of 2008... what I'm now calling BC (Before Crash)... in addition to the election, Global Warming was the dominant topic. Does it exist? What can we do if it does exist? How much time do we have left to course correct?

So I decided to take an educational excursion up to the Arctic to see for myself with, among other experts, Harm de Blij, one of the world's leading geographers. When people asked why I was taking this trip, I half jokingly said I wanted to see the Arctic before it melted.

Despite that thought, I really expected that the trip would be full of grand images of unbroken horizons of ice. What we actually saw were broken ice floes, beautiful... but not very cold. And by the way, Greenland, which is not supposed to be GREEN (that was Viking propaganda to get people there from Scandinavia) but was so brutally frozen and WHITE, that even the Vikings bailed. Now it is indeed more and more green.

Yes, the Arctic IS melting but there was a glimmer of good news at the center of what we learned. The earth is entering a mini ice age (as it does every 20,000 years) but all of the warm CO2 in the atmosphere is counteracting the freeze, in effect creating what Thomas Friedman calls "Global Weirding," which we witnessed first-hand. While Greenland is becoming warmer, Iceland is becoming colder... and this winter was REALLY winter in the midwest and northeast.

Why is that good news? The pull between freezing and warming is buying us a bit of time to work things out (approximately 100 years according to Jim Dator, head of Future Studies at the University of Hawaii). It's now a "survival" imperative that we be innovative and develop creative solutions.

I didn't realize how immediate that need was going to be. We came home Tuesday September 16 to find that Monday the stock market had tanked, dropping over 500 points into virtual freefall. Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch collapsed and Washington Mutual/AIG were on the brink.

The New Normal

A few days later, I had dinner with a friend who had just been laid off from a senior position at Martha Stewart. Yes, she was remarkably upbeat and was no longer spending without real mindfulness. She said that was the "old normal" and she was embarking on what she called the "new normal" - spending more time with family, reconnecting with friends live and in-person, making things herself (like dinner), going to museums, Central Park during the daytime (what a concept!), essentially doing things that didn't cost much but were great experiences. I LOVED the "new normal" because it signals an immediate collective behavior shift AND because it feels like a positive reinvention rather than penance.

So what are the top 2010 Societal Transformations?

Recession

  • National Unemployment since FUSE '08 has jumped from 5% to 8.5%
  • Mortgage foreclosures have increased 46%, and are climbing
  • The Fortune 500 earnings dropped 84.7% from 2007, from $645b to $98.9b, the worst drop in the 55 history of the Fortune 500

Upside Down = Right Side Up

"The World Stands on its Head" (Die Welt Steht Kopf) House, on the Baltic Sea Island of Usedom, stands nearly completed (as of September 3, 2008), in Trassenheide, Germany. The upside-down house, complete with upside-down furnishings, is the brainchild of Klaudiusz Golos and Sebastian Mikiciuk, and will be a tourist attraction that will open to the public tomorrow.

The WiiCession

Consumers have responded by playing Wii. Anecdotally, people I talk to everywhere and across generations are hanging at home. Sales of Wii are surging in the USA. Mike Duke, CEO of Wal-Mart, said sales of Nintendo's Wii, plus other things that make HOME A HAVEN, like flat screen TVs and home electronics, are surging, as people cut back on going to movies, dinner or on vacation.

Gloom to Boom

Platitudes proliferate in times of turmoil; they teach us about what's going on and give us some solace, such as:

  • Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.
    - proverb
  • There is no education like adversity.
    - Benjamin Disraeli
  • The good things which belong to prosperity are to be wished, but the good things that belong to adversity are to be admired.
    - Seneca
  • Adversity has the effect of eliciting talents, which in prosperous circumstances would have lain dormant.
    - Horace
  • Sweet are the uses of adversity.
    - Shakespeare
  • Prosperity discovers vice, adversity discovers virtue.
    - Francis Bacon
  • If you're going through hell, keep going.
    - Winston Churchill

Bloom

The burgeoning "green economy" will be a strong force in the "New Normal" and new ideas are coming from creative visionaries at the periphery of the culture.

  • Solar balloons: Dubbed Sunhope, the project is showing great promise as a low-cost deployable system to harness solar energy while maintaining a minuscule environmental footprint.
  • In WIND TECHNOLOGY, GE is training 1,600 new hires in turbine technology every year for the forseeable future. The new V-Wing Turbine can generate wind energy from the oceans.
  • AUTO INDUSTRY must reboot... and is starting to get an infusion of innovation from unlikely places like their own intern programs and outside entrepreneurs who are changing the DNA of cars as we know them. In 20 years "cars" will be "digital hydrogen electric," highly sensory computers 3000 times smarter then today. They will drive us versus us driving them, sense traffic, our moods, become work/entertainment pods increasing personal productivity while decreasing emissions. It will become a WorldWide Vehicle web or mobile technology platform. How cool, a car that can heal itself, sense your mood and adjust the interior to suit, change colors on the fly. Just download style preferences like you currently download ringtones.

Deprived, Thriving

The refrain, "Am I fired or retired? Regardless, I'm going to do something I've always wanted to do now that I have nothing to lose."

Thriving

Americans are realistically dealing with economic turbulence, embracing it as a positive change agent to create new businesses and using layoffs/downsizing to pursue their true goals. A new self-renewal rhythm is rising to reconnect us to our personal creativity. Taking the form of re-education, the aforementioned reconnecting with family, art classes, reading, going to museums, slow food, will calm us down and help to refocus.

Pew-S-A > New-S-A

Pew-S-A

I'm neither Republican nor Democrat but I still feel that I'm an American. Under the Bush administration, brand USA cracked. Our image became tarnished, our credibility and trustworthiness tanked, and it no longer felt like red, white and blue...rather we were divided by red or blue.

New-S-A

Barack Obama created a Grassroots branding movement using social networking technology like Twitter and FaceBook to create a new campaign literacy in a BIG WAY...

President Obama has become a beacon of Diversity, Support, Transparency, Positivity (Yes We can), and... I hope... Unification.

This is the beginning of a NEW U-S-A repositioning with Obama as a symbolic reminder of the American spirit that we are inherently, collectively innovative and strong.

Tragedy = Comedy

Tragedy

The News has become a litany of the terrible. It seems the news media is forcing us to succumb to fear. It's so bad that when I heard the news of PIRATES in the 21st Century, it was almost a welcome reprieve from all the BAD that pervades DAILY, where the "e" word and "r" word have become the new "f" words, and CNN has become the tragedy network.

Comedy

Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert are enjoying higher than normal ratings (guys 18-25 have always gotten their news from these these two) but they are getting an increasing share of the general population because their HONEST, no BS, satirical approach is a breath of fresh air.

That's why movies like Paul Blart: Mall Cop has generated $143 Million in US box office to date, and why repositioning Hollywood is another dream project of mine. We're ready for sophisticated Gary Grant-esque comedies again. We need truth, but we need it delivered in a fun, non-toxic way.

HAL/Twitter

HAL

Just think about this for a moment. Can you imagine what Stanley Kubrick and the visionaries at IBM who in the 1960s envisioned the year 2001 as a world of space travel, photo-phones, automated machines everywhere, and what one psychotic super computer would think about...Twitter.

Twitter, Twitter, Tweet, Tweet

The Harvard Business School POV is that Twitter may have a larger impact on the economy than the sub-prime crisis. Weren't twits...twits? Now we twitter, twit, tweet, text, all typing...not talking. The New York Times recently noted that 91% of people 30 and under respond to text messages within the hour. Texting is instant, voicemail laborious, and the latter may become obsolete within the next decade. So social networking platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and MySpace, platforms that helped get Obama elected, have created new platforms for brand communications and growth.

Anti-Aging, Health-Proofing

Health is Wealth

We've gone from anti-aging to health-proofing. Another thriving segment at stores like Wal-Mart and Target is vitamins. People are health-proofing against potentially financially devastating health care costs by taking vitamins (health in a bottle) and exercising more. While gym memberships and attendance have declined, exercising at home or outdoors has increased. People are even trying to eat more naturally, authentically: real ingredients, organics, less processing, less "chem lab in a box."

Consumer Frugalism

Our new creative, back to basics frugality includes "shopping" in your own closet and making your own clothes (sewing machines, knitting supply sales have increased).

  • Embracing "budgeting" creativity: November/December saw a rise in home-crafted holiday decorations and increased traffic at online sites like Sav-on-Crafts.com
  • Craft time is a new way to connect with family
  • It even extends to growing your own food as prices rise and money is tight. Lawn gardens are literally growing: 7 million US HH (including the First Family) are planning to plant a garden this spring...up 19% over last year.

Anti-Trust = Trust

We hate:

  • Madoff
  • AIG
  • CitiBank
  • Merrill Lynch

We want:

  • Familiar Brands
  • Trusted Relationship
  • Relevant Heritage
  • Genuine

Consumer outcry over Tropicana resulted in the return of its trusted, familiar imagery.

A brand's heritage reinforces consumer trust. Brands that have stood the test of time are authentic, which makes them valid and compelling, particularly NOW.

Adversity > Optimism

O springs eternal!

Change the Conversation

Speech Presented at Fuse Conference, San Francisco, CA, April 22, 2009

Visit the Fuse Conference Site >

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